Monday, March 21, 2005

KTs - rethinking the play

The player UTG limped, and I limped behind him with KTs in clubs.
It was folded to a middle position player who raised, two players called behind, as did both blinds and the UTG limped.
I considered re-raising, but opted to just call.
If I raise, I create a big pot, one that I'd be correct in chasing with almost any piece of the flop. If the flop missed me completely, I could easily let it go; if I flopped a draw of any sort, it would likely be to the nuts.
If my holding was KQs, I like the re-raise. With a two-gap suited connector, it's borderline at best, and, preferring a lower variance play, I smooth called, closing the action.

The flop came A, 9, 3, with the Ace and 3 both clubs. It was checked to me, and I bet. The pre-flop raiser pumped it, and only the UTG player called.

In thinking about this hand later, I think a check-raise is the better play. I have the nut-flush draw, and want to build a big pot with my big draw. By betting and giving the pre-flop raiser a chance to raise, I shut out the field, many of whom would have been drawing thin or dead. They might call one bet, but are less likely to call 2. I put the pre-flop raiser on an Ace, and so thought it highly likely he would bet. In retrospect, on this hand, I think I should have gone for the check-raise. On the flop, with the nut flush draw, I am a 2 to 1 dog to make my hand, so even with only 2 opponents, I am basically even money on a check-raise here (or, can re-evaluate situation and simply call).

I do like to play my draws aggressively, but in early position, and with the raiser to my immediate left, I was perhaps hasty.

The turn was a Jack, giving me a gut shot straight to go with my nut flush draw, increasing my outs from 9 to 12. I was confident that the pre-flop raiser had an Ace, so I had to hit to win, but if I did make my hand, it was going to be the nuts.

UTG checked, I checked, pre-flop raiser bet. UTG and I both called.

I considered a check-raise, since my hand had improved, but didn't think that there was any chance a semi-bluff would get my opponent to lay his hand down. With 12 outs, I was about a 3 to 1 dog to make the hand, meaning I'd rake the pot about 25% of the time. I didn't think I could improve that number with a raise, but the pot was laying me enough to make a call correct, so I did.

The river was no help, UTG checked, I checked, and the pre-flop raiser showed his hand, perhaps fearing one of us was slow-playing two pair. He held ATs, and took the pot.

This hand speaks to many concepts, and I think I could have played it better. By betting and allowing my opponent to raise on the flop, I shut out the field, which was probably a mistake.

If I had held an overcard to the board, different story, as I would be happy to improve my chances of winning by hitting the overcard.

But, with the nut flush draw and no overcard, I want as many callers as possible. I can then decide to check-raise my big draw or simply call.

I do like to check-raise nut flush draws on the flop; it confuses opponents, and as long as I have trapped enough players, it shows a big profit. I can then choose to lead the turn or check, depending on what hits. If I make the flush, I'd be inclined to bet; if I miss, I might get a free card. But, it's unlikely that I would make the flush and then be able to check-raise the turn after check-raising the flop.

I've been running bad recently. The game has been very loose and aggressive, and my big starting hands aren't holding up. AK losing to Ax when my opponent makes a dirty two pair on the river. Or, flopping the nut draw and not getting there. Short term, these results can be painful, but by examining my hands played, I can continue to learn and improve.

Here's hoping you always get raised when you're holding the nuts.

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