Thursday, August 04, 2005

risking your tournament on a draw

It happens a lot, especially in a Sit-N-Go.
A player flops four cards to a flush or an open-ended straight, and decides to call all-in, risking his tournament.
Note that this is different from betting all-in, especially if the bet is substantial enough to cause others to fold, thereby creating two ways to win (everyone folds to your bet or they call and you hit your draw).

Everyone folded to the button who raised to 180 (three times the BB); the small blind mucked, and the BB called.
The flop came K, Q, 7. BB checked, pre-flop raiser bet 250 at the 390 pot. The BB called.
The turn was J, and the BB bet all-in his last 340 chips.

Button called, showed AK (top pair, top kicker, and a draw for Broadway if a ten hit). BB turned over TT for an open-ended straight draw.

While I like this all-in bet better than an all-in call, there's no chance that the pre-flop raiser is going to lay down his hand, which means that the bettor has 8 outs or his tournament is over (in this case, the two remaining tens in the deck make the pre-flop raiser a straight).

I hate the flop call; pocket tens are clearly in trouble, even if the pre-flop raiser was on a steal, since both a King and a Queen hit the board. While the Jack does give the BB an open straight draw, it also is another over-card on the board (if the pre-flop raiser had AJ...), meaning he has to make the straight to win (given the board, one would have to assume that either pocket tens were beat or that the pre-flop raiser had an ace, reducing the chances that a ten will win the pot).

Given the player's short stack, and his clear desire to gamble, re-raising pre-flop is not a bad play.

End result -- a 9 hit the river, giving the BB the pot. But, in tournament play, the goal is to win. You can't win if you get busted out. Risking your tournament on draws is a great way to make sure you don't make the money. Obviously, there are times when you have to play your draws strongly, but if you can avoid getting your money in the pot with drawing hands -- especially with one-way draws [if you have both a straight and a flush draw, you have a lot more outs], you'll make more final tables.

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