Harrington's Law of Bluffing

In HARRINGTON ON HOLD 'EM Volume 1, he provides his Law of Bluffing:
The probability that your opponent is bluffing when he shoves a big bet in the pot is always at least 10 percent.

Great thing to keep in mind. AT LEAST 10%.

limit poket - pocket 10s - what's the right play?

I'm not sure what the best play is here, so I'm putting this out there as food for thought.

You're in late-middle position in a ten-handed limit Hold 'Em game. The first three players limp, the next two players fold, and it's on you. You have pocket 10s. What's the best play?

Let's assume that you know your opponents pretty well, and in general, they all tend to be loose-passive players who are rarely bluffed out of the pot, often chase, and play a wide range of hands from all positions. They will almost always raise their best starting hands, and always call a late-position raise if they have limped into the pot.

My friend argues that always raising the pocket 10s is the right play -- he figures you have the best hand and want to represent strength.

I wonder if calling and waiting for a favorable flop isn't a better play. For one, you can get out cheap if there are overcards on the flop. Two, if you flop a set, your opponents will have no idea of your holding and give you a lot of action Three, by manipulating the size of the pot and opting to keep the size of the pot small, your post-flop bets and raises have a better chance to thinning the field and putting your opponents in a position to make mistakes.

If you raise and the flop comes 8, 5, 2, and everyone checks to you and you bet, your opponents will be getting proper odds to draw to overcards and gut-shot draws. If you simply call pre-flop, keeping the pot smaller, you cut down their odds.

I think that with a larger pair like Aces or Kings, raising makes more sense. For one, you'll be able to bet or raise the flop in most situations (unlike with the tens, where any jack, queen, king or ace will make you pause); and, post-flop, if you flop an overpair, which is likely, opponents won't have overcard outs to your big pair.

I'm going to keep thinking about this, but it seems that automatically raising limpers in position with queens, jacks and tens might not be the best play, especially in limit poker.

straights lose all the time

Two stories of flopped straights in the blind.
With seven five offsuit, I got a free play in the blind and got the perfect flop: 4, 6, 8. I checked, there was a bet and a call and I raised; the initial better re-raised, the caller folded and I went all-in and he called (I had him covered). He turned over AA -- a pre-flop raise would have gotten me to lay down my hand, so I figured he was kicking himself. An ace on the turn and a 6 on the river bailed him out for his horrible play and he took the pot with a full house.

With eight six offsuit, again in the big blind, I got a free play and was delighted by a flop of 5, 7, 9. I was in 2nd chip position with four players left in a 10 player SNG that paid three places. The player under the gun had 115 chips left; the blinds were 100/200, so he would be all in the next hand in the blind.
I checked and my opponent -- the chip leader -- bet the minimum. I raised the minimum and he called. The turn was a ten, I bet the pot and he raised; I re-raised all in and he called, turning over T,7o. The river was a seven, giving him runner-runner full house to crush my flopped straight and knock me out of the tournament in 4th place, letting my short-stacked opponent slip into the money.

implied threat

In THE BOOK OF BLUFFS, Matt Lessinger defines "the implied threat" as:
"When attempting a bluff before the river, your opponent understands that he must not only consider your current bet, but the possibility of future bets as well. While he might consider calling your current bet, it's the implied threat of future bets that might discourage him from calling."

This is an important concept, and Lessinger states it well and explains it more fully in his book. If you hold a medium strength hand or a vulnerable hand, ask yourself, how much will it cost me to get to the showdown. While the pot odds might be correct for you to call on the flop, if you factor in the turn and river bets, you might be best served by folding early.