Saturday, September 09, 2006

Wall Street Journal - Sept 9, 2006 front page casino lingo

Tipping 'The Weekend Interview' which this week is with George W. Bush, the eyebrow on the front page of The Wall Street Journal reads "George Bush Doubles Down: Paul A. Gigot meets a president who's playing his strongest hand."
The article -- on page A 8, and only available to subscribers online -- says in part:
"Mr. Bush isn't changing his policy or hunkering down in the Oval Office. Instead, he's doubling down, investing whatever scarce political capital he has to frame the November contest as a choice over the economy and taxes and especially over his prosecution of the war on terror...
Mr. Bush will be blamed if Republicans lose [in the November mid-term elections] in any case, so he might as well play his strongest hand to prevent such a result."

Is Mr. Gigot trying to say that Mr. Bush holds a strong hand and is foolishly doubling down? Or that Mr. Bush has been losing but now he's increasing his bets, figuring to get even or get broke? Smart gamblers don't chase losses, so the latter scenario would mean that Mr. Bush isn't a smart gambler. And basic blackjack strategy dictates that a player double down when dealt a relatively weak hand -- one that totals 9, 10 or 11, particularly when the dealer is showing a 6 or lower. A strong hand is when the player is dealt 21, 20 or even 19, especially when the dealer is not showing a face card or an ace; players don't double down on those hands.

So, I'm not sure what Mr. Gigot is trying to say.

One thing I do know: I'd prefer not to trust either Mr. Gigot or Mr. Bush to gamble for me, as it seems that at least one of them isn't too sure how the game is played.

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