Monday, April 11, 2005

overestimating opponents at the Mirage in Vegas

At the Mirage in Vegas, I raised under-the-gun with JJ. everyone folded to the little blind, who called. The big blind folded.
The flop came J, 9, 2, rainbow, giving me top set. After raising preflop, I figured a check would be suspicious, so I fired after she checked; she called.
The turn brought a queen. She bet.
I put her on a queen, and raised.
She re-raised! I re-evaluated, and figured she must have flopped a small set, and waited until the turn to raise. So, figuring my trip jacks were good, I raised again.
She raised me!
Now, I had to re-evaluate. I figured that if she had pocket queens, she might have re-raised pre-flop, or might have bet or check-raised the flop. But, she was a little tricky, so I thought there was some chance she had a set of queens.
I called.
The turn was a blank, she fired, and I called, and she turned over K,T. She called my pre-flop under-the-gun raise from the small blind in a pot likely to be heads-up (the big blind was tight) with a hand that was very likely to be dominated.
Then, she called the flop with a gut-shot straight draw and one overcard in a heads-up pot.
Because I thought she was a better player, I put her on a tricky set, and raised and re-raised the action on the turn.
If I had realize what a fish she was, I would have just called her down and saved 4 bets.
Oh well.
Of course, if the board had paired on the river, this would be a different post...

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